Internet trends: marketing research & predictions

2010 Tech and IT Influencers: Trend Predictions in 140 Characters (3rd Report by TrendsSpotting)

December 31st, 2009 by

“2010 Tech and IT Influencers” is the third report from the series “2010 Influencers Series: Trend Predictions in 140 Characters“.

Findings: Major trends in 2010 Tech and IT:

Across many of these predictions, we have identified the following trends suggested to influence Tech in 2010:
@Clouds – free, private, public, green, data, identity
@Mobile – apps, store, iPhone, Android, Location (AR)
@Netbooks – cheap notebooks / smartphones, Google
@eBooks – Amazon, apps
@Social – enterprise, computing

TrendsSpotting Market Research is now running its third annual prediction reports following major trends in six categories. We will be featuring the predictions of digital and marketing experts on the big changes awaiting us in the coming year.
This year we are adopting a new “tweet style” format, easier for you to focus on, comprehend and forward.

Already released from the Trend Prediction Influencers Series:

@2010 Social Media (published also at NYTimes / RWW, Mashable, Examiner)

@2010 Consumer Trends.

@2010 Tech and IT.

@2010 Online Marketing.

@2010 Online Video.

@2010 Mobile.

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2010 Consumer Trends Influencers: Slides Predictions in 140 Characters, (2nd Report, by TrendsSpotting)

December 24th, 2009 by and

View more  slides from TrendsSpotting.

Findings: Major trends in 2010 Consumer Trends

Across many of these predictions, we have identified the following trends suggested to influence consumer behavior: Healthy, Value, Stability, Disclosure, DIY.
Is the Recession over? 2010 Predictions Suggests Consumers aren’t Buying it…

Merry Christmas, and may we all have a great year ahead.

Already released from the Trend Prediction Influencers Series:

@2010 Social Media (published also at NYTimes / RWW, Mashable, Examiner)

@2010 Consumer Trends.

@2010 Tech and IT.

@2010 Online Marketing.

@2010 Online Video.

@2010 Mobile

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2010 Social Media Influencers – Trend Predictions in 140 Characters (1st Report, by TrendsSpotting)

December 21st, 2009 by

View more slides from Trendsspotting.

New! TrendsSpotting has released the second report from the the series: “2010 Influencers on Consumer Trends – Trend Predictions in 140 characters“.

In this report,  the 2010 Social Media trends are foretasted by:

@petecashmore PETE CASHMORE Founder, CEO Mashable
@armano DAVID ARMANO Senior Partner, Dachis Group Author, Logic and Emotion
@chrisbrogan CHRIS BROGAN President, New Marketing Labs
@peterkim PETER KIM Managing Director, N.America Dachis Group
SETH GODIN, Bestselling Author, Entrepreneur & Agent of change
@litmanlive MICHAEL LITMAN Social Media Strategist Consolidated PR
@tamar TAMAR WEINBERG, Community & Marketing Manager, Mashable
@johnbattelle JOHN BATTELLE Founder & Chairman Federated Media
@mariansalzman MARIAN SALZMAN President, N.America Euro PR, Trend Spotter & Author
@mzkagan MARTA KAGAN Managing Director, US Espresso- Brand Infiltration
@danzarrella DAN ZARRELLA Social & Viral Marketing Scientist HubSpot
@emarketer eMARKETER Digital Intelligence
@drewmclellan DREW McLELLAN Founder and Author The Marketing Minute
@idc CAROLINE DANGSON Digital Marketplace Research Analyst IDC
@jasonfalls JASON FALLS Social Media Strategist Social Media Explorer
@charleneli CHARLENE LI Founder Altimeter Group
@gauravonomics GAURAV MISHRA CEO 2020 Social Online
@marc_meyer MARC MEYER Principal Digital Marketing Response Group
@emarketer JEFFREY GARU Senior Analyst eMarketer 2010
@jimmy_wales  JIMMY WALES Founder Wikipedia
@alecjross ALEC ROSS Sr Advisor -Innovation State Department
@CraigNewmark CRAIG NEWMARK Founder of Craiglist
@scobleizer ROBERT SCOBLE Technical Evangelist Rackspace
@dmscott DAVID MEERMAN SCOTT Marketing Strategist & Author World Wide Rave
@roncallari RON CALLARI Social Media
@ravit_ustrategy RAVIT LICHTENBERG Founder & Chief Strategist Ustrategy.com
@equalman ERIK QUALMAN Author Socialnomics
@pgillin PAUL GILLIN Writer, Author & Social Media Consultant Principal
@adambroitman ADAM BROITMAN Partner & Ringleader Circ.us
@cbensen CONNIE BENSEN Director of Social Media & Community Strategy Alterian
@mikearauz MIKE ARAUZ Strategist Undercurrent
@nenshad Nenshad Badoliwalla Co-author Driven to Performance
@adamcohen ADAM COHEN Partner Rosetta
@danielwaisberg DANIEL WAISBERG Head of Web Analytics Easynet
@communitygirl ANGELA CONNOR Journalist & Community Strategist
@trendsspotting TALY WEISS CEO and Head of Research TrendsSpotting.com

Findings:  Major trends in 2010 Social Media

Across many of these predictions, we have identified the following trends suggested to influence 2010 Social Media: Mobile, Location, Transparency, Measurement, ROI, Privacy.

Reflecting on 2009 predictions – not much has changed.
We conclude that 2009 did not meet its expectations.
How about 2010?

Already released from the Trend Prediction Influencers Series:

@2010 Social Media (published also at NYTimes / RWW, Mashable, Examiner)

@2010 Consumer Trends.

@2010 Tech and IT.

@2010 Online Marketing.

@2010 Online Video.

@2010 Mobile

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Coming Soon: TrendsSpotting 2010 Influencers Series: Trend Predictions in 140 Characters

December 20th, 2009 by and

influencers 2010 predictions Coming Soon: TrendsSpotting 2010 Influencers Series: Trend Predictions in 140 Characters

Within the next few days TrendsSpotting Market Research will be publishing a series of slide presentations following major trends in six categories. We will be featuring the predictions of digital and marketing experts on the big changes awaiting us in the coming year.

This year we are adopting a new “tweet style” format, branded as

2010 Trend Predictions in 140 characters“.

Influencers presentations will include:

@2010 Social Media (published also at NYTimes / RWW, Mashable, Examiner)

@2010 Consumer Trends.

@2010 Tech and IT.

@2010 Online Marketing.

@2010 Online Video.

@2010 Mobile

We wish to thank all experts who participated and submitted their insightful prediction tweets.

Be first to read the 2010 Trend Predictions as it appears. Follow us @trendsspotting

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Global Warming 2009 Public Perceptions – Is there hope for change?

December 4th, 2009 by

Why Should We Care More Today?

Scientists believe that global warming is already worse than predicted few years ago, still – people today show less concern.

“ If the world fails to deliver a political agreement at the UN climate conference it will be “the whole global democratic system not being able to deliver results in one of the defining challenges of our century” says COP15 president, Connie Hedegaard.

Introduction:

We have been witnessing a decline of interest in the global warming consequences: Recent US surveys (ABC News/Washington Post, Pew research survey,  Gallup) all show sharp fall in the public concern. But, something else is happening on the world wide web. We have been witnessing a rise of interest in “ global warming” : Web measures (search trends, blogs discussions, twitter trends) all show a marked increase in internet users interest.

1. The Decline In Global Warming Concerns Through Public Surveys:

A. Pew Research Center survey points to a sharp decline in the percentage of Americans who say there is solid evidence that global temperatures are rising (57% October 09, down from 71% April 08). Fewer people see global warming as a very serious problem (35% October 09 versus 44% in April 08).

B.  ABC News/ Washington Post, Nov 09: 72% of the Americans believe global warming is occurring. Though, still a majority, it is the lowest score since 1997. The drop has steepened in the last year and a half – mainly among conservatives and Republicans.

2.  The Rise In Global Warming Concerns Through Web Metric: blogs, twitter and search indications

  1. There are indications for a marked increase in blogs discussions.
  2. Search volume for “global warming” is climbing up towards its 2007 peak!
  3. Twitter users discuss “Global Warming” and “Climate Change”

Conclusions:

The decline in interest in Global Warming issues is unsurprising at times when people are facing immediate economic threats. Still, Internet measures show a rise in interest towards the UN Conference.

There is hope for change!

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The “unfriend” Social Cycle: Social Networks Behavior Patterns

November 18th, 2009 by and

 The unfriend Social Cycle: Social Networks Behavior Patterns

The New Oxford American Dictionary has chosen ‘unfriend’ as its word of the year. To ‘unfriend’ means to remove someone from your friend list on a social network like Facebook or MySpace (and we extend that to a similar pattern of “unfollow”  in Twitter). “Defriend” came in as a  close rival, but unfriend takes it one step further by employing a more active and abnormal “verb sense” of the word ‘friend.’

Earlier we had stated some of the facts on Social networks:

  • An average Facebook user has 120 friend. In general he/she general trades emails or responds to the postings of only 7 closets friends. The actual number of individuals that represents his social “core network” with whom individuals “can discuss important matters”, numbers only 3 for Americans (more here).
  • Unfriending is not uncool. Success of Burger Kings Whooper application brought some evidences to the fact that its not a cardinal sin to exchange your 10 Facebook friends for a free Burger-King whooper. Within a week after its launch 82,000 people bartered over 230,000 friendships on Facebook for a whopper, till Facebook banned the app on its platform.

Read Write Web debated on that choice:

Richard MacManus thinks it’s an odd choice:

“I think that’s an odd choice for word of the year, as all the trends indicate there has been more social networking activity this past year – not less, as ‘unfriend’ implies. Facebook and Twitter have both rocketed in popularity in 2009. I’d suggest that more people have left MySpace and migrated to Facebook, than unfriended people on Facebook”.

Marshall Kirkpatrick claims:

” “unfriend” is a very appropriate word for the year as it fits with the way people are becoming more sophisticated in their social networking. People are deciding to do some editing of the friends lists they rushed naively into”.

Marshall also points to the fact that seven out of the top ten searches performed on the Facebook Help Center page are about getting rid of your own social network profiles or deleting your friends.

Our take :

Unfriend (as well as Defriend) as WOTY simply shows just how deeply social networks have infiltrated our lives. As we continue to embrace living in a highly connected digital world, we also learn to how to manage and take control of it.

In the current social – digital cycle -  people still extend the number of people they are in contact with. The average number of friends users have in Facebook is still growing (120 reported  March 2009 - < 130 reported today). While the tendency to accept friendship is still a social norm in social networks – people became overwhelmed by the number of interactions they are exposed to. This brought to the unfriend behavior. We believe that as social networks will be more mature – the number of friends will finally stabilize. The stabilization process involves more control and thus much less friendship acceptance to begin with.  The growing usage and cultural importance of ‘unfriend’ possibly indicates how social networks in the coming years will be more closed and meaningful.

And for the brands in Social media the time remains ever more challenging. With 40% of the users ‘friended’ a brand on Facebook and 25% on Twitter ,’unfriending’ implies a loss of equity.

Check out the other finalist by category.

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Twitter users share early adopters symptoms

November 12th, 2009 by and

 Twitter users share early adopters symptoms

Recent findings of a Pew Internet study revealed, Twitter is being extensively used as a status update service to keep in touch. Youth (age 18 -44), social network users and users with access to mobile internet show early Twitter adoption symptoms.

The study – Twitter and status update, was conducted in September 2009, amongst a sample of 2,253 adults, 18 and older.

The key Highlights of the research indicates:

1. One in every five Internet users  are now on Twitter

19% of internet users say they use Twitter or another service to share updates about themselves, or to see updates about others (up from 11% in April).

Demographics of Tweeters

  • Twittering was skewed towards youth
  • No income based difference were observed
  • Twitter saw a diverse racial and ethnic base
  • Women also showed slightly higher inclination towards Tweeting than men

2. Social network website users also show higher Twitter adoption rates

The use of social network sites like Facebook, MySpace or LinkedIn had a huge influence on Twitter. Nearly 35% of other social network users say they have twittered as compared to 6% of internet users who do use any social network. This finding is independent of age or accessibility of internet via mobile devices. It also shows a strong correlation between status update and social network use. Recent stats presented by Facebook’s COO reveals there are now over 45 million status update per day from 30 million unique visitors on FacebookTwitter is estimated to yield about 25.9 million tweets per day (October 2009).

3. Those who connect to the internet via mobile devices are more likely to Tweet

54% Americans have a wireless connection to internet via laptop, cell phone, game console or other mobile devices as of September 2009. They study indicates the segment of users who have access to wireless internet connection show higher growth in Twitter usage than those who rely exclusively via tethered connection.

This finding also reinstates the trend identified in our previous article – early adopters study on the mobile web. The article suggested that Mobile Twitter would see a rise as more people used a mobile device to access the Web.

Pew internet study conducted in April 2009 revealed, mobile internet users extensively used their connection to stay in touch with other people and to share or post content online.

4. More Devices leads more active Twittering

The more internet connected devices someone owns, the more likely they are to use Twitter. The chart indicates that 39% of internet users with four or more internet-connected devices use Twitter, compared to 28% of internet users with three devices, 19% of internet users with two devices, and 10% of internet users with one device.

twitter Mobile devices Twitter users share early adopters symptoms

5. Younger internet users show rapid uptake of Twitter

Over the last nine months, the younger internet users age 18-44 report higher Twitter adoption rates as compared to internet users ages 45 and older. The median age of Twitter hovers around 31 while Facebook is showing signs of aging, the median for this social networking site is now 33, up from 26 in May 2008.

The future of Twitter

Twitter had successfully reached early adopters. Twitter users are those handle social relationship online, have wireless connection, and use many internet-connected devices.

We see the future growth of Twitter side by side with the constant growth of smart phones (currently 17% in the U.S.).  The Twitter updates behavior will be adopted by the mass not only when accessibility will be improved but also together with advanced location based services (LBS). We believe that location based opportunities will bring a new meaning to social updates and to effective day by day life management.

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For a Better (Digital) World

November 3rd, 2009 by

worldbuilding Hariss For a Better (Digital) World

In a beautiful thought-provoking project of Jonathan Harris (creator of We Feel Fine – one of the first social web emotion visualization projects), Harris shares some touching  personal insights with artistic inspirations relevant to a digital world. In this “World Building in a Crazy World” – Harris suggests 1-2-3 principals for a world building idea – “a universal idea executed simply, with an element of play, nostalgia or beauty”.

Enjoy.

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Halloween through Location Based Applications

November 1st, 2009 by

Google Latitude or other location based applications working through mobile phones can let you track your kids whereabouts during Halloween.   Aside from tracking, many of those applications can be used (note privacy concerns) for sharing the Halloween experience. Locations of retailers selling costumes and decorations can also be found by using applications as Poynt. To improve the Halloween experience, Zillow.com, have created a Trick or Treat Housing Index, which presents the top-five neighborhoods to maximize candy harvesting. The index uses four equally weighted data variables: Zillow Home Value Index, population density, Walk Score, and local crime data. Based on those variables, this Index represents neighborhoods that will provide the most candy, with the least walking, and minimal safety risks. Follow the index for top five neighborhoods in SF, LA, Seattle, Chicago and Boston.

To further improve kids safety,  “Offender Locator” (iTunes Link) which works with Blackberry and iPhone, tracks sex offenders on your trick or treating route. The app provides you with a list of offenders based on their proximity to the location given. You can get information as names, pictures, age, height, weight and the specific sexual crime they were charged with.

LBS (Location Based Services) is a market predicted to grow (according to Gartner – LBS subscribers are forecast to grow from 41.0 million in 2008 to 95.7 million in 2009 while revenue is anticipated to increase from $998.3 million in 2008 to $2.2 billion in 2009). Gartner suggests that North America is the largest market due to mobile carriers’ strong efforts in navigation services and family-safety solutions.

I find Halloween as a good example for the conflict introduced by LBS technology systems: The need to share experiences and learn about friends locations comes in contrast to safety measures. The same system that gives you more control, is the one to danger your privacy.

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Google Wave: Invite Led Viral Campaign

October 22nd, 2009 by

 Google Wave: Invite Led Viral Campaign

Search Engine giant Google, has shown the world how it is reshaping the way communication happens over the internet with the soft launch of Google Wave. And it has done so in a way it knows best – through invite based viral marketing.

The internet witnessed tremors of excitement when 100,000 exclusive invites to Wave were sought after by surfers who were curious, passionate, and addicted to Google.

A sense of Déjà vu is hard to avoid. Google sent out similar invites when it launched Gmail in 2007, to build hype. Privileged invites led marketing has been a potent weapon that Google has learned to wield well, and with Google Wave, it intends to go for a big kill.

Google revels in its buzz creating potential and it only has a colorful launch history backing it. A slew of chatter broke out over Social media networks when Google announced the release of its browser Chrome. While some questioned Chrome’s ability to take on the big browser share held by IE; most conversations, powered by positive industry review, focused on the browser’s speed.

The launch of Google’s Android and Search Wikis did not whip up a buzz to match its earlier success with hype generation. As discussed in our previous article Android’s initial buzz raised a lot of doubt over the web and has cast a feeble spell online. SearchWiki too suffered a similar plight. People were annoyed by a sudden forced change in the way they searched the web and considered it a rather arrogant move on Google’s part to not allow people to turn off the SearchWiki function.

The story so far

Google Wave was first unveiled to 4000 developers at the Google I/O conference back in May (read the Google Blog). Since then the product demo video, doing the rounds on the internet, has had over 5 million hits on Youtube and has set the www abuzz. There are close to 500 videos discussing Wave through product demos and reviews.

Wave is, by far, Google’s most ambitious project and is a work in progress online tool that enables real time communication and collaboration. It works by incorporating a host of commonly used features such as email, IM, rich media sharing, wikis and social networking.

Nature and focus of buzz

The buzz surrounding the ‘by invitation only’ test launch is almost as exciting as the product itself. It has helped build hype for Wave’s commercial launch next year. Within minutes of the announcement, Wave invites were being auctioned on E Bay for a price of $5100 – Google Wave invite hits eBay, price soars. These astronomical bids were however retrenched after the existence of the invite was questioned by eBayers.

Spurring the invite buzz were spurious websites that mushroomed all over the internet luring the frenzied masses with invites to Wave.

The invite has been an object of interest on Twitter. Early reviews discuss the features of the product in great length while there has been a growing concern over the confusing and complex nature of Wave. People on Wave are unable to invite their friends to use the product with them and this has been a subject of grouse for some since it limits their Wave usage.

Stats on Google Wave

A few quick observations

Google Wave has certainly captured interest although long term sustainability is still a question. Continue reading Google Wave: Invite Led Viral Campaign

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