Internet trends: marketing research & predictions

Global Warming 2009 Public Perceptions – Is there hope for change?

December 4th, 2009 by

Climate Change 2009 Perceptions 

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Why Should We Care More Today?

Scientists believe that global warming is already worse than predicted few years ago, still – people today show less concern.

“ If the world fails to deliver a political agreement at the UN climate conference it will be “the whole global democratic system not being able to deliver results in one of the defining challenges of our century” says COP15 president, Connie Hedegaard.

Introduction:

We have been witnessing a decline of interest in the global warming consequences: Recent US surveys (ABC News/Washington Post, Pew research survey,  Gallup) all show sharp fall in the public concern. But, something else is happening on the world wide web. We have been witnessing a rise of interest in “ global warming” : Web measures (search trends, blogs discussions, twitter trends) all show a marked increase in internet users interest.

1. The Decline In Global Warming Concerns Through Public Surveys:

A. Pew Research Center survey points to a sharp decline in the percentage of Americans who say there is solid evidence that global temperatures are rising (57% October 09, down from 71% April 08). Fewer people see global warming as a very serious problem (35% October 09 versus 44% in April 08).

B.  ABC News/ Washington Post, Nov 09: 72% of the Americans believe global warming is occurring. Though, still a majority, it is the lowest score since 1997. The drop has steepened in the last year and a half – mainly among conservatives and Republicans.

2.  The Rise In Global Warming Concerns Through Web Metric: blogs, twitter and search indications

  1. There are indications for a marked increase in blogs discussions.
  2. Search volume for “global warming” is climbing up towards its 2007 peak!
  3. Twitter users discuss “Global Warming” and “Climate Change”

Conclusions:

The decline in interest in Global Warming issues is unsurprising at times when people are facing immediate economic threats. Still, Internet measures show a rise in interest towards the UN Conference.

There is hope for change!

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The “unfriend” Social Cycle: Social Networks Behavior Patterns

November 18th, 2009 by and

unfriend_social_cycle

The New Oxford American Dictionary has chosen ‘unfriend’ as its word of the year. To ‘unfriend’ means to remove someone from your friend list on a social network like Facebook or MySpace (and we extend that to a similar pattern of “unfollow”  in Twitter). “Defriend” came in as a  close rival, but unfriend takes it one step further by employing a more active and abnormal “verb sense” of the word ‘friend.’

Earlier we had stated some of the facts on Social networks:

  • An average Facebook user has 120 friend. In general he/she general trades emails or responds to the postings of only 7 closets friends. The actual number of individuals that represents his social “core network” with whom individuals “can discuss important matters”, numbers only 3 for Americans (more here).
  • Unfriending is not uncool. Success of Burger Kings Whooper application brought some evidences to the fact that its not a cardinal sin to exchange your 10 Facebook friends for a free Burger-King whooper. Within a week after its launch 82,000 people bartered over 230,000 friendships on Facebook for a whopper, till Facebook banned the app on its platform.

Read Write Web debated on that choice:

Richard MacManus thinks it’s an odd choice:

“I think that’s an odd choice for word of the year, as all the trends indicate there has been more social networking activity this past year – not less, as ‘unfriend’ implies. Facebook and Twitter have both rocketed in popularity in 2009. I’d suggest that more people have left MySpace and migrated to Facebook, than unfriended people on Facebook”.

Marshall Kirkpatrick claims:

” “unfriend” is a very appropriate word for the year as it fits with the way people are becoming more sophisticated in their social networking. People are deciding to do some editing of the friends lists they rushed naively into”.

Marshall also points to the fact that seven out of the top ten searches performed on the Facebook Help Center page are about getting rid of your own social network profiles or deleting your friends.

Our take :

Unfriend (as well as Defriend) as WOTY simply shows just how deeply social networks have infiltrated our lives. As we continue to embrace living in a highly connected digital world, we also learn to how to manage and take control of it.

In the current social – digital cycle –  people still extend the number of people they are in contact with. The average number of friends users have in Facebook is still growing (120 reported  March 2009 < 130 reported today). While the tendency to accept friendship is still a social norm in social networks – people became overwhelmed by the number of interactions they are exposed to. This brought to the unfriend behavior. We believe that as social networks will be more mature – the number of friends will finally stabilize. The stabilization process involves more control and thus much less friendship acceptance to begin with.  The growing usage and cultural importance of ‘unfriend’ possibly indicates how social networks in the coming years will be more closed and meaningful.

And for the brands in Social media the time remains ever more challenging. With 40% of the users ‘friended’ a brand on Facebook and 25% on Twitter ,’unfriending’ implies a loss of equity.

Check out the other finalist by category.

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Twitter users share early adopters symptoms

November 12th, 2009 by and

early_adopters_twitter

Recent findings of a Pew Internet study revealed, Twitter is being extensively used as a status update service to keep in touch. Youth (age 18 -44), social network users and users with access to mobile internet show early Twitter adoption symptoms.

The study – Twitter and status update, was conducted in September 2009, amongst a sample of 2,253 adults, 18 and older.

The key Highlights of the research indicates:

1. One in every five Internet users  are now on Twitter

19% of internet users say they use Twitter or another service to share updates about themselves, or to see updates about others (up from 11% in April).

Demographics of Tweeters

  • Twittering was skewed towards youth
  • No income based difference were observed
  • Twitter saw a diverse racial and ethnic base
  • Women also showed slightly higher inclination towards Tweeting than men

2. Social network website users also show higher Twitter adoption rates

The use of social network sites like Facebook, MySpace or LinkedIn had a huge influence on Twitter. Nearly 35% of other social network users say they have twittered as compared to 6% of internet users who do use any social network. This finding is independent of age or accessibility of internet via mobile devices. It also shows a strong correlation between status update and social network use. Recent stats presented by Facebook’s COO reveals there are now over 45 million status update per day from 30 million unique visitors on FacebookTwitter is estimated to yield about 25.9 million tweets per day (October 2009).

3. Those who connect to the internet via mobile devices are more likely to Tweet

54% Americans have a wireless connection to internet via laptop, cell phone, game console or other mobile devices as of September 2009. They study indicates the segment of users who have access to wireless internet connection show higher growth in Twitter usage than those who rely exclusively via tethered connection.

This finding also reinstates the trend identified in our previous article – early adopters study on the mobile web. The article suggested that Mobile Twitter would see a rise as more people used a mobile device to access the Web.

Pew internet study conducted in April 2009 revealed, mobile internet users extensively used their connection to stay in touch with other people and to share or post content online.

4. More Devices leads more active Twittering

The more internet connected devices someone owns, the more likely they are to use Twitter. The chart indicates that 39% of internet users with four or more internet-connected devices use Twitter, compared to 28% of internet users with three devices, 19% of internet users with two devices, and 10% of internet users with one device.

twitter_Mobile_devices

5. Younger internet users show rapid uptake of Twitter

Over the last nine months, the younger internet users age 18-44 report higher Twitter adoption rates as compared to internet users ages 45 and older. The median age of Twitter hovers around 31 while Facebook is showing signs of aging, the median for this social networking site is now 33, up from 26 in May 2008.

The future of Twitter

Twitter had successfully reached early adopters. Twitter users are those handle social relationship online, have wireless connection, and use many internet-connected devices.

We see the future growth of Twitter side by side with the constant growth of smart phones (currently 17% in the U.S.).  The Twitter updates behavior will be adopted by the mass not only when accessibility will be improved but also together with advanced location based services (LBS). We believe that location based opportunities will bring a new meaning to social updates and to effective day by day life management.

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For a Better (Digital) World

November 3rd, 2009 by

worldbuilding_Hariss

In a beautiful thought-provoking project of Jonathan Harris (creator of We Feel Fine – one of the first social web emotion visualization projects), Harris shares some touching  personal insights with artistic inspirations relevant to a digital world. In this “World Building in a Crazy World” – Harris suggests 1-2-3 principals for a world building idea – “a universal idea executed simply, with an element of play, nostalgia or beauty”.

Enjoy.

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Halloween through Location Based Applications

November 1st, 2009 by

Google Latitude or other location based applications working through mobile phones can let you track your kids whereabouts during Halloween.   Aside from tracking, many of those applications can be used (note privacy concerns) for sharing the Halloween experience. Locations of retailers selling costumes and decorations can also be found by using applications as Poynt. To improve the Halloween experience, Zillow.com, have created a Trick or Treat Housing Index, which presents the top-five neighborhoods to maximize candy harvesting. The index uses four equally weighted data variables: Zillow Home Value Index, population density, Walk Score, and local crime data. Based on those variables, this Index represents neighborhoods that will provide the most candy, with the least walking, and minimal safety risks. Follow the index for top five neighborhoods in SF, LA, Seattle, Chicago and Boston.

To further improve kids safety,  “Offender Locator” (iTunes Link) which works with Blackberry and iPhone, tracks sex offenders on your trick or treating route. The app provides you with a list of offenders based on their proximity to the location given. You can get information as names, pictures, age, height, weight and the specific sexual crime they were charged with.

LBS (Location Based Services) is a market predicted to grow (according to Gartner – LBS subscribers are forecast to grow from 41.0 million in 2008 to 95.7 million in 2009 while revenue is anticipated to increase from $998.3 million in 2008 to $2.2 billion in 2009). Gartner suggests that North America is the largest market due to mobile carriers’ strong efforts in navigation services and family-safety solutions.

I find Halloween as a good example for the conflict introduced by LBS technology systems: The need to share experiences and learn about friends locations comes in contrast to safety measures. The same system that gives you more control, is the one to danger your privacy.

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Google Wave: Invite Led Viral Campaign

October 22nd, 2009 by

google_wave_invite_buzz

Search Engine giant Google, has shown the world how it is reshaping the way communication happens over the internet with the soft launch of Google Wave. And it has done so in a way it knows best – through invite based viral marketing.

The internet witnessed tremors of excitement when 100,000 exclusive invites to Wave were sought after by surfers who were curious, passionate, and addicted to Google.

A sense of Déjà vu is hard to avoid. Google sent out similar invites when it launched Gmail in 2007, to build hype. Privileged invites led marketing has been a potent weapon that Google has learned to wield well, and with Google Wave, it intends to go for a big kill.

Google revels in its buzz creating potential and it only has a colorful launch history backing it. A slew of chatter broke out over Social media networks when Google announced the release of its browser Chrome. While some questioned Chrome’s ability to take on the big browser share held by IE; most conversations, powered by positive industry review, focused on the browser’s speed.

The launch of Google’s Android and Search Wikis did not whip up a buzz to match its earlier success with hype generation. As discussed in our previous article Android’s initial buzz raised a lot of doubt over the web and has cast a feeble spell online. SearchWiki too suffered a similar plight. People were annoyed by a sudden forced change in the way they searched the web and considered it a rather arrogant move on Google’s part to not allow people to turn off the SearchWiki function.

The story so far

Google Wave was first unveiled to 4000 developers at the Google I/O conference back in May (read the Google Blog). Since then the product demo video, doing the rounds on the internet, has had over 5 million hits on Youtube and has set the www abuzz. There are close to 500 videos discussing Wave through product demos and reviews.

Wave is, by far, Google’s most ambitious project and is a work in progress online tool that enables real time communication and collaboration. It works by incorporating a host of commonly used features such as email, IM, rich media sharing, wikis and social networking.

Nature and focus of buzz

The buzz surrounding the ‘by invitation only’ test launch is almost as exciting as the product itself. It has helped build hype for Wave’s commercial launch next year. Within minutes of the announcement, Wave invites were being auctioned on E Bay for a price of $5100 – Google Wave invite hits eBay, price soars. These astronomical bids were however retrenched after the existence of the invite was questioned by eBayers.

Spurring the invite buzz were spurious websites that mushroomed all over the internet luring the frenzied masses with invites to Wave.

The invite has been an object of interest on Twitter. Early reviews discuss the features of the product in great length while there has been a growing concern over the confusing and complex nature of Wave. People on Wave are unable to invite their friends to use the product with them and this has been a subject of grouse for some since it limits their Wave usage.

Stats on Google Wave

A few quick observations

Google Wave has certainly captured interest although long term sustainability is still a question. Continue reading Google Wave: Invite Led Viral Campaign

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New ppt Slides: Consumer & Market Trends during Recession

October 19th, 2009 by

TrendsSpotting.com has released a slides presentation on its new published report:  Consumer and Market Trends during Recession – Cross Industry Research.

Click here to learn more about the report

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Is the Recession over? Research Suggests American Consumers aren’t Buying it: Cross–Industry Research Report by TrendsSpotting.com

October 9th, 2009 by

Buy now!

Quoting Bloomberg, (July 26 2009) “The worst U.S. recession in five decades probably eased in the second quarter (2009) as trade and government stimulus mitigated the damage from declines in housing, inventories and consumer and business spending”.
President Obama is similarly optimistic declaring that “the worst may be over in the economic crisis”.

Is it really? Are there signs of consumer recovery?

In this TrendsSpotting report we follow the main consumer markets and consumers’ behavior indications for the year 2009. To better understand how Americans are adjusting their buying habits during the recession we have collected consumers’ spending statistics, data provided by recognized market research companies. TrendsSpotting’s unique consumer insights derive from marketing research expertise along with experienced use of web metrics tools such as Search Trends and Social Media monitoring. Utilizing these tools to “listen” to consumer interactions and follow their search trends provides indications on consumer interests and intentions. TrendsSpotting presents web metrics findings in each industry reviewed.

The fifty page report “Consumer and Market Trends During Recession” offers a comprehensive review of the U.S. market in the following consumer industries: Food and Beverage, Apparel, Media and Electronics, Travel, Health, Automobiles, Education and Pets. It provides a broad perspective on consumers’ changing behavior during the current economic downturn.

update:

In an interview with Guy Kawasaki for the American Express Open Forum- you can find the key findings derived from this report. Here is his take on it:

” Consumer and Market Trends during Recession” is a very interesting and timely report. In addition to a comprehensive review of survey data, TrendsSpotting’s unique use of web metrics reflecting consumers’ online behavior, brings market research into the Web 2.0 era.
I find TrendsSpotting’s business review an important resource for marketers. ”

—- Guy Kawasaki, Co-founder of Alltop.com and Garage Technology Ventures.

Here’s Marian Salzman’s take on it:

“The report is enormously comprehensive and stunningly interesting. TrendsSpotting.com has pulled it all together to make it highly relevant. I am impressed by the breadth and depth, and timeliness of the content. Wow.”

—- Marian Salzman, president Euro RSCG Worldwide PR, North America, and one of the world’s leading trendspotters/ futurists.

> READ MORE

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American Brands Continue to Dominate in Times of Global Recession: 2006-2009 Global Brands Equity

September 22nd, 2009 by

Interbrand recently published “Best Global Brands 2009“, their annual brand equity report.
TrendsSpotting examined the data and totaled the top American brands for the years 2006-2009.
It seems that neither the recession, nor other economic forces, are affecting American brands’ global influence. As can be seen in the following table, American brands have reached the top 10, 50, and 100 among global brands, in a stable pattern over the years (in fact, in the last two years, eight out of ten global brands were American (up from seven out of ten for the years 2007 and 2006).

American_brands_recession

Interviewed on the effect of the recession, Andy Bateman, CEO of Interbrand, said “Stock market declines and earnings declines have contributed 10% and 30% to overall decline in brand value among all brands, but for the top 100 brands the overall decline was only 4%”.

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On Google’s new forecasting capabilities and their importance to Market Research

September 7th, 2009 by

Google’s power lies in knowledge. The knowledge of what people search for.
Google shares some of this knowledge as it updates their tool – Google
Insights for Search
.
With a posteriori examination of historical trends – it suggests a basic
model for predicting the next search trends
.
We can now improve the understanding of consumer behavior in variety of
markets and geographical locations.

How does that work?

On many search trends queries, conducted on the Google insight for Search
website, you receive along with the historical data, a 12 month forecast. For good example search for  “iPhone“.

What’s behind Google’s forecasting model?

Google has characterized the predictability of a trends’ series based on its
historical performance. To do so they compared the discrepancy of forecasted trends, applied at some point in the past, to the trends’ actual performance. When the discrepancy between the forecasted trends and the actual trends is smaller than a predefined threshold, Google denotes the trends query as predictable.

Google’s research observations:

– Over half of the most popular Google search queries were found predictable in 12 month ahead forecast, with a mean absolute prediction error of approximately 12% on average. That means that nearly half of the most popular queries are not predictable.

– High predictable categories: Health (74%), Food & Drink (67%) and
Travel (65%).

– Low predictable categories: Entertainment (35%) and Social Networks &
Online Communities (27%).

– To earn more predictable indications – best to search for trends of
aggregated queries (“all categories” option): 88% of the aggregated category
is predictable with a mean absolute prediction error of less than 6% on
average. The larger the aggregation set is, the smaller would be the
variability of the aggregated time series

– There is a clear association between the existence of seasonality
patterns and higher predictability, as well as an association between high
levels of outliers and lower predictability.

GOOGLE_ PREDICTIONS_SEARCH_CATEGORIES

For the above summary results of the 10 categories, the correlation between
the Predictability and the Seasonality Ratio is r= 0.80 while the Deviation Ratio has a (negative) correlation of r= -0.94 with the Predictability.

While TrendsSpotting is working on a new research on US Recession Trends
(you are welcome to contact us for more information) – we have
observed such trends, where seasonality seems high and predictability can
be inferred. Take the trend search for “gift” as a good example for the seasonality effect:

gifts_ search_volume

In many of the consumer industries we have followed, the recession has
definitely distracted seasonality and made forecasting abilities more difficult: Refer to the search for “flight” for example.

flight_ search_volume

Whats missing in Google Insights for Search?

1. As I have pointed out some  years ago – Google Trends Search gives you
relative search volume only (relative to the total number of searches done
on Google over time). It doesn’t represent absolute search volume numbers.
2. While Google does calculate forecast parameters – how about releasing
the data on seasonality and deviation for the specific search?

A Market Research perspective:

I welcome Google for sharing more trends search capabilities.
I personally met a few of the Google Trends team and highly appreciate their work.

Web search trends are very important for the understanding of consumer behavior. In the many years I have worked as a market researcher, I have always preferred direct methods to analyze consumer behavior.
Compare that to surveys – those can tell you mostly about intentions (far future), about previous actions (depending on good memory skills that respondents  don’t have..), and perceptions (but not in a natural manner where one freely chooses to express her/his feelings). Surveys can indeed provide some indications and estimations for behaviors but they lack the means to reflect consumers’ real behavior.
In the last years, web metrics as search trends, blog citations
tools, and social media monitoring tools have captured my full attention. As a Social Psychologist – I find them to be valuable tools in examining people’s natural behavior. TrendsSpotting (company and blog) is all about making sense of it all.

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