Consumer technologies- 5 year forecast
The Forrester Report, published this week, offers a five-year forecast for 15 consumer technologies. Here are some of its highlights:
- Digital video recorders (DVRs), will grow from 21 million US households (end of last year) to more than 69 million households.
- Home networks, will grow from 21 million households (2006), to more than 58 million households.
- HDTVs is expected to grow from 36 million households (end of this year) to more than 69 million households.
- Camera phones will grow from 41.6 million households (end of 2006) to nearly 97 million households.
- Growth in video games consoles is accepted to remain flat (not more than 14% growth is expected)
- Growth of MP3 players will slow as more consumers will access music via mobile phones (from 40 million at the end of this year to 48.4 million in 2012).
I believe that those estimations are not a surprise to any of you. Taking the technologies already highly adopted and expecting a 100-300% growth in 5 years, can’t tell us a lot about the real potential of technologies in the years to come. I do believe that major players as Apple or Google (speaking of changes in 5 years – Google is celebrating 10 years – today!) will introduce technologies that will gain a much higher rate of adopters in the years to come. I expect the Early Adopters Phase to decline from years to months, and I do hope that the year 2011 will hold much more than DVR-HDTV-Camera Phones for the mass consumers. What would you expect?
The Forrester report is based on a sample of more than 58,000 consumers in the US and Canada.
Read more on consumer technologies: Herald Tribune, The New York Times
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