Consumer technologies- 5 year forecast

September 15th, 2007 by Taly Weiss

Filed under Trend Spots, Trends Review, consumer behavior, iphone, mobile web, online survey, prediction

technology Consumer technologies 5 year forecast

The Forrester Report, published this week, offers a five-year forecast for 15 consumer technologies. Here are some of its highlights:

Digital video recorders (DVRs), will grow from 21 million US households (end of last year) to more than 69 million households.
Home networks, will grow from 21 million households (2006), to more than 58 million households.
HDTVs is expected to grow from 36 million households (end of this year) to more than 69 million households.
Camera phones will grow from 41.6 million households (end of 2006) to nearly 97 million households.
Growth in video games consoles is accepted to remain flat (not more than 14% growth is expected)
Growth of MP3 players will slow as more consumers will access music via mobile phones (from 40 million at the end of this year to 48.4 million in 2012).

I believe that those estimations are not a surprise to any of you. Taking the technologies already highly adopted and expecting a 100-300% growth in 5 years, can’t tell us a lot about the real potential of technologies in the years to come. I do believe that major players as Apple or Google (speaking of changes in 5 years - Google is celebrating 10 years – today!) will introduce technologies that will gain a much higher rate of adopters in the years to come. I expect the Early Adopters Phase to decline from years to months, and I do hope that the year 2011 will hold much more than DVR-HDTV-Camera Phones for the mass consumers. What would you expect?

The Forrester report is based on a sample of more than 58,000 consumers in the US and Canada.

Read more on consumer technologies: Herald Tribune, The New York Times

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