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Internet trends: marketing research & predictions

2010 Tech and IT Influencers: Trend Predictions in 140 Characters (3rd Report by TrendsSpotting)

December 31st, 2009 by

“2010 Tech and IT Influencers” is the third report from the series “2010 Influencers Series: Trend Predictions in 140 Characters“.

Findings: Major trends in 2010 Tech and IT:

Across many of these predictions, we have identified the following trends suggested to influence Tech in 2010:
@Clouds – free, private, public, green, data, identity
@Mobile – apps, store, iPhone, Android, Location (AR)
@Netbooks – cheap notebooks / smartphones, Google
@eBooks – Amazon, apps
@Social – enterprise, computing

TrendsSpotting Market Research is now running its third annual prediction reports following major trends in six categories. We will be featuring the predictions of digital and marketing experts on the big changes awaiting us in the coming year.
This year we are adopting a new “tweet style” format, easier for you to focus on, comprehend and forward.

Already released from the Trend Prediction Influencers Series:

@2010 Social Media (published also at NYTimes / RWW, Mashable, Examiner)

@2010 Consumer Trends.

@2010 Tech and IT.

@2010 Online Marketing.

@2010 Online Video.

@2010 Mobile.

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On Google’s new forecasting capabilities and their importance to Market Research

September 7th, 2009 by

Google’s power lies in knowledge. The knowledge of what people search for.
Google shares some of this knowledge as it updates their tool – Google
Insights for Search
.
With a posteriori examination of historical trends – it suggests a basic
model for predicting the next search trends
.
We can now improve the understanding of consumer behavior in variety of
markets and geographical locations.

How does that work?

On many search trends queries, conducted on the Google insight for Search
website, you receive along with the historical data, a 12 month forecast. For good example search for  “iPhone“.

What’s behind Google’s forecasting model?

Google has characterized the predictability of a trends’ series based on its
historical performance. To do so they compared the discrepancy of forecasted trends, applied at some point in the past, to the trends’ actual performance. When the discrepancy between the forecasted trends and the actual trends is smaller than a predefined threshold, Google denotes the trends query as predictable.

Google’s research observations:

– Over half of the most popular Google search queries were found predictable in 12 month ahead forecast, with a mean absolute prediction error of approximately 12% on average. That means that nearly half of the most popular queries are not predictable.

– High predictable categories: Health (74%), Food & Drink (67%) and
Travel (65%).

– Low predictable categories: Entertainment (35%) and Social Networks &
Online Communities (27%).

– To earn more predictable indications – best to search for trends of
aggregated queries (“all categories” option): 88% of the aggregated category
is predictable with a mean absolute prediction error of less than 6% on
average. The larger the aggregation set is, the smaller would be the
variability of the aggregated time series

– There is a clear association between the existence of seasonality
patterns and higher predictability, as well as an association between high
levels of outliers and lower predictability.

GOOGLE_ PREDICTIONS_SEARCH_CATEGORIES

For the above summary results of the 10 categories, the correlation between
the Predictability and the Seasonality Ratio is r= 0.80 while the Deviation Ratio has a (negative) correlation of r= -0.94 with the Predictability.

While TrendsSpotting is working on a new research on US Recession Trends
(you are welcome to contact us for more information) – we have
observed such trends, where seasonality seems high and predictability can
be inferred. Take the trend search for “gift” as a good example for the seasonality effect:

gifts_ search_volume

In many of the consumer industries we have followed, the recession has
definitely distracted seasonality and made forecasting abilities more difficult: Refer to the search for “flight” for example.

flight_ search_volume

Whats missing in Google Insights for Search?

1. As I have pointed out some  years ago – Google Trends Search gives you
relative search volume only (relative to the total number of searches done
on Google over time). It doesn’t represent absolute search volume numbers.
2. While Google does calculate forecast parameters – how about releasing
the data on seasonality and deviation for the specific search?

A Market Research perspective:

I welcome Google for sharing more trends search capabilities.
I personally met a few of the Google Trends team and highly appreciate their work.

Web search trends are very important for the understanding of consumer behavior. In the many years I have worked as a market researcher, I have always preferred direct methods to analyze consumer behavior.
Compare that to surveys – those can tell you mostly about intentions (far future), about previous actions (depending on good memory skills that respondents  don’t have..), and perceptions (but not in a natural manner where one freely chooses to express her/his feelings). Surveys can indeed provide some indications and estimations for behaviors but they lack the means to reflect consumers’ real behavior.
In the last years, web metrics as search trends, blog citations
tools, and social media monitoring tools have captured my full attention. As a Social Psychologist – I find them to be valuable tools in examining people’s natural behavior. TrendsSpotting (company and blog) is all about making sense of it all.

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Google’s Favicon: A Discussion On Brand Identity With Bill Gardner

January 20th, 2009 by

Google Favicon  
Back in June 2008 ,Google redesigned its favicon – from its original uppercase ‘G’ to small ‘g’ after 8.5 years. At that time, Marissa Mayer, Google VP explained that the new favicon was responding to the need to better adapt to new platforms, especially to iPhone and additional mobile devices.

However we indicated that majority disliked the new favicon & Google might attempt to arrive at next set of favicon via crowd sourcing route. Last week Google redesigned its favicon – again , this time via much anticipated user driven way. The new favicon is reinterpretation of André Resende’s submission & uses all the colours from Google’s logo, while keeping the same lowercase “g” . Marissa Mayer describes the new favicon distinctive in shape, noticeable, colourful, timeless and scalable.

In order to get a feedback on Google’s branding exercise & on its new favicon , we invited Bill Gardner – principal of Gardner Design , creator of LogoLounge.com & author of highly popular LogoLounge trend series.

When asked on if he could observe any trend on Google’s recent series of identity makeover, Bill answers “I think if I see any trend here it is the shift towards everyone believing they [Google] are an expert and a player in whatever field is in play.”

He continues :

“ Google is the 2 ton gorilla on the internet. No one competes with them. They are there because of good thinking, and good timing, not because of good marketing. If you owned the franchise on oxygen, the human race would love you regardless of your design prowess. Google, I believe, has always ignored expert involvement with their identity.”

Bill presents us the history of Google logo & favicon :

” The primary Google letterform is wholly unremarkable and was primarily designed by Brazilian, Ruth Kedar an artist and instructor at Stanford. It is well letter spaced and the face Catull was a nice selection, but the limit of design effort on this is some dimensional shading and the colors that the founders had requested. If a Fortune 1000 company came out with a new logo and it was as naive and light weight as the Google logo, they’d never hear the end of it. What does work is the open airiness and single concentration of the Google home page.”

Bill gardner on Google

“With that as the set-up for the favicon, no one but designers are really taking notice. A favicon does the same labor as a logo which is why most favicons are simply company logos. When a logo is a wordmark or does not work, companies avoid doing a favicon altogether, or they create a bastard graphic to plug the hole. A potential trend is the adoption of these default favicons as a logo since they often have greater visibility than other elements in a corporations visual brand”.

The Logolounge founder comments on André’s submission :

Favicon_Andre  
“His submission had a logical break out of the four color palette and used the

lower case “g” which has greater personality and more recognizable association with Google. It’s a pretty straight forward solution and the possibility that this basic solution already is in use and owned by someone else is high. Maybe the color breaks are different but I’ll bet that structure is already legally held by others.”

…and on Google’s new favicon :

Google Favicon_0109   “This modified solution is acceptable, but even it has unresolved issues.

While Andrés solution had a logical break for the 4 colors, the new solution does not. Thus the ambiguous color break between the red and the green. Is that break line curved or not and why or why not? What of the little middle dot on the left? Why doesn’t it align with the blue and yellow circles to create a comfortable left face to the favicon? I love working with negative space to complete a logo as much or more than other designers but this solution leaves you feeling awkward. All of this for me goes back to a feeling that Google still owns the franchise on oxygen and they believe they should know how to whip this solution internally and this is “good enough”.”

Bill sums it up:

“If this favicon does stick, I can assure you that someone somewhere will start to use it as a Google logo. It is only a matter of time. If they could just bring themselves to pry loose with enough money to hire someone that understands identity, to do it right. Too bad they once again, just settled for “good enough”. We will continue to look at their favicon like the Emperors New Clothes. Google prancing around in the buff because they are king.”

Do let us know your views on new Google favicon. And those who are eagerly waiting for LogoLounge 2009 Logo Trend Report it will be out in the early Spring and LogoLounge Book 5 will be released in June of 2009.

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Crowds predict better than professionals: Google predicts the next flu

December 15th, 2008 by

Many of us came to believe that since Google is powering our search behavior– it has the power to predict the future.
We at TrendsSpotting used Google Trends to throw lights on brands , products, and of course the US elections.
We understand that it does not only reflect current needs and interests, but, if analyzed correctly it can help us build future patterns in any field you choose.
I find it amazing that by following human search you can actually decrease uncertainties and gain predictability even in fields which were perceived to lack human influence and control.

Today, by following the crowds, Google can share insights on the spreading of epidemics as the flu. It turns out that Google can accurately estimate current flu levels one to two weeks faster than any other professional report.
Marketing wise, health care and pharmaceutical companies can plan their marketing efforts more accurately, and effectively choose the right timing to advertise medicine and cold relief products.
Assuming marketing budget cuts– and a need for smart planning – the next graph indicates that it is much to soon to start advertising… (but for those of you in the health business – follow this trend as it will soon change its pattern!)

goolge_trends_flu_2008_usa.PNG
Current USA Google Trends Flu Graph

This comes as a strong evidence for Google as the perfect handy tool for marketers to plan their marketing activity by location and seasonality.

About Google Flu Trends:
Each week, millions of users around the world search for online health information. We have found a close relationship between how many people search for flu-related topics and how many people actually have flu symptoms. Of course, not every person who searches for “flu” is actually sick, but a pattern emerges when all the flu-related search queries from each state and region are added together.

Google Flu trends works!
Comparing Google’s query counts with data from a surveillance system managed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that some search queries tend to be popular exactly when flu season is happening. By counting how often we see these search queries, we can estimate how much flu is circulating in various regions of the United States. Google flu Trend results have been published in Nature.
During the 2007-2008 flu season, an early version of Google Flu Trends was used to share results each week with the Epidemiology and Prevention Branch of the Influenza Division at CDC. Across each of the nine surveillance regions of the United States, we were able to accurately estimate current flu levels one to two weeks faster than published CDC reports.

google_trends_flu_comparison.png

This graph shows five years of Google query-based flu estimates for the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States, compared against influenza surveillance data provided by CDC’s U.S. Influenza Sentinel Provider Surveillance Network. As you can see, estimates based on Google search queries about flu are very closely matched to a flu activity indicator used by CDC.

Can Google search queries predict better than 1500 doctors?
CDC uses a variety of methods to track influenza across the United States each year. One method relies on a network of more than 1500 doctors who see 16 million patients each year. The doctors keep track of the percentage of their patients who have an influenza-like illness, also known as an “ILI percentage”. CDC and state health departments collect and aggregate this data each week, providing a good indicator of overall flu activity across the United States.
It turns out that traditional flu surveillance systems take 1-2 weeks to collect and release surveillance data, but Google search queries can be automatically counted very quickly. By making our flu estimates available each day, Google Flu Trends may provide an early-warning system for outbreaks of influenza.

Benefits to disease detection:
For epidemiologists, this is an exciting development, because early detection of a disease outbreak can reduce the number of people affected. If a new strain of influenza virus emerges under certain conditions, a pandemic could emerge and cause millions of deaths (as happened, for example, in 1918). Google’s up-to-date influenza estimates may enable public health officials and health professionals to better respond to seasonal epidemics.

Note:

If you remember Google’s team April 1st joke: “Google lets you see search results one day in advance” (Google predicts tomorrow) – well that’s probably no joke at all – it might as well be Google’s new business model..

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Where’s the Buzz: The iPhone Girl

August 30th, 2008 by

iphone Girl

A Foxconn Taiwanese factory worker become an Internet buzz after a picture of her smiling and flashing a peace sign to a co-worker testing an Apple iPhone stayed on the phone that was sold to a man in Britain. The iPhone customer,  identified as “markm49uk”,  reported his finding on MacRumors.com along with posting three pictures of the “girl” he found on his phone. This set off a global chain reaction of media interest & culminating in the quest by China’s “Human Flesh Search Engine” to discover her identity.

China’s Human Flesh Search Engine is a poor translation of the Chinese phrase ren’rou sou’suo ??????, an increasingly frequent phenomenon of online crowds gathering via China’s BBS, chat rooms, and IMs to collaborate on a common task.

Some speculated the girl’s age to be about 12 or 13, and whether a harmless snapshot may be a small glimpse into child labor abuses.  A Gizmodo reader rated “iPhone girl” a 5.5 out of 10 on the cute scale.  Some people voiced concern that the woman could now lose her job while one dubbed it as a “nice personal touch “. Local netizens created a website for her, iphonegirl.cn, and urged netizens not to human-flesh search and publish her personal data. Amid the all speculations “iPhone girl” recorded over 20 million searches on Google’s Chinese search site, google.cn & became a fastest growing term in Baidu, making her an Internet Celebrity overnight.

iphone girl buzz in Blogs

“iPhone Girl” buzz in Blogs

The Internet breathed a sigh of relief when representatives from Foxconn confirmed that “iPhone Girl” was a worker at its plant and declared the photos were a “beautiful mistake”. China’s Southern Metropolitan Daily dubbing the mystery worker “China’s prettiest factory girl”, later reported that the woman was not fired.

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iPhone is leading the mobile web: US mobile subscribers survey

July 13th, 2008 by

mobile_web_iphone.PNG

mobile_web_iphone.PNG

Mobile Web Activities: iPhone, Smartphone and Total Market: January 2008

Six months after the iPhone’s launch, Apple is generating another peak for its leading brand. On July 11, gadget lovers around the world crammed into stores to buy the latest super-fast iPhone 3G.

What have iPhone have achieved is not only well competing with dominant mobile companies, but also leading the whole category of Mobile Web: According to M:Metrics
iPhone is already the most popular device for accessing news and information on the mobile Web, with 85% of iPhone users accessing news and information in the month of January.
M:Metrics found that 31% of iPhone owners watched mobile TV or video (versus 4.6% market average). Usage of social networking is also popular among iPhone users: 49.7% accessed a social networking site in January, 12 times the market average.

Among iPhone owners – YouTube, Google Maps and Facebook are much more popular:
30.4% of iPhone users accessed YouTube (versus 1% total mobile market), 36% used Google Maps (versus 2.6% total market) and 20% accessed Facebook (versus 1.5% of the total mobile market).

iPhone users and the music market:
74% of iPhone owners were listening to mobile music in January (compared to 6.7% of the total mobile audience). Not surprising is the fact that 84% of iPhone owners who use an MP3 player use an iPod.

iPhone users demographic profile:
The demographic composition of iPhone users are similar to the demographics of other smartphone owners: they are more likely to be male, aged 25-34, earn more that $100,000 and have a college degree.

Methodology:
M:metrics survey of U.S. mobile subscribers is based on three-month moving average for period ending 31st January 2008, n = 31,389.

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Trends Review 2007

January 4th, 2008 by

Trends Review on slides

Full Trends Review

For our 2007 Trend Review we choose few “best chosen” categories and suggested our best nominees. For those we examined “You” – writing on blogs and forums. We checked Your searches and votes and presented evidence for the trends. Our final conclusion is based on our personal insights. Our Trends 2007 tools were: search engines trends, buzz on blogs, forums, surveys, mainstream media and popular blogs. And of course – previous TrendsSpotting findings.

1. Product of the year:

The competition was lopsided numero – uno iPhone versus “No One”. Though, we were considering: Nintendo wii ,MS Xbox, playstation III, Guitar Hero. Our appetite for iPhone seems incessant Google zeitgeist suggests iPhone is the No 1 – fastest rising global and in US. Mainstream Media was voracious about apples much hyped gadget. To much of iPhones accolade Time declared it as “The invention of the year”.Blogpulse (see graph 1) suggests iPhone was indeed a news generator. However wii seems to be starring in search and in forum discussions (see graph 2) while just before Christmas wii demand skyrocketed & Nintendo’s inability to match that ,brought it much to our discussion.

iphone-wii-xbox.PNG

graph 1: blog citations: iPhone vs. wii vs. xbox (by BlogPulse)

iphone-wii-xbox-forums.PNG

graph 2: forum citations: iPhone vs. wii vs. xbox (by Omgili)

Can you believe when the initial survey indicated that only 3% were highly interested in purchasing iPhone for the price of $499 , Apple had to cut it down to $399, just 68 days after product launch?

Talys Say: iPhone will make it to history pages.
Apurbas Say: xbox.

2. Disappointment of the year:

We think the two close contestants were rumor (or news) multiplied “Google Phone” buzz versus virtual world bubble “Second Life”. While Google secret sauce Android added much to the Gphone buzz ,whereas kids & their alternative identity, “Second Life” stalled mostly due to operational issues.

For Google Phone- The seasonal peak in Google Phone searches (see graph 3) & blog citations (see graph 4) are true reflection of how quickly we lost out interest in it.

For Second Life: 2007 was the breaking point for Second Life (see graph 5 for traffic, graph 4 for blog citations).

trends-2007-sl-gphone.PNG
graph 3: Google search: second life vs. Google phone vs. android (by Google Trends) secondlife-googlephone-android.PNG
graph 4: blog citations: second life vs. google phone vs. android (by BlogPulse) secondlife-alexa.PNG
graph 5: 2007 traffic estimation for secondlife (by alexa)
Our say: Hard to say – While Google Phone brought publishers to lose faith in Google (so much discussion over nothing) Second Life holds major marketers on hold.

3. Issue of the year:

The grass looks much greener in 2007..at least Yahoo !s Top 10 environmental query suggests so. Interesting. .Global warming – is that a Global issue or was it Angela Merkel’s political agenda to G8 summit? Why only people of 3 countries are proactively demanding from their governments to take responsibility ? On the contrary “United States election” made a loud noise in almost all main stream media across the globe.

Our say: Google Trends seems much warmer on “Global warming” over “United states election” (see graph 6).

global-warming-us-elections-trend.PNG
graph 6: Google search: global warming vs. United States election (by Google Trends)

Taly’s say: Global warming – A trend with ideology which makes us better people.

Apurba’s say: Are we loosing faith in government & institutions? None of the presidential candidates [except Hillary Clinton & Obama] registered great buzz.CIA, FBI are alleged to edit Wikipedia .

4. Book of the year:
“He who lends a book is an idiot. He who returns the book is more of an idiot” –Arab Proverb.

Fun apart – 2007 we seemed enchanted by “potter mania”- on the release day itself Harry Potter was hot not less than iPhone

It would be a fallacy to compare Harry Potter’s 7th book [25-30 M sold & most talked in Shelfari ] with other notable Amazon Best sellers specially Elizabeth Gilbert’s travel memoir “Eat ,Pray ,Love” [ 4 M sold]. It created outstanding online buzz post the Oprah Winfrey Show featured author Gilbert on two episodes on Oct 2007.

See Harry Potter versus Amazon Best seller (graph 7 – blog citations, graph 8 – forum discussions)

harry-potter-trends-2007.PNG

graph 7: blog citations: Harry Potter vs. Eat Pray Love (by BlogPulse)

harry-potter-trends-forum-2007.PNG

graph 8: forum discussions: Harry Potter vs. Eat Pray Love (by Omgili)

Our say: no match!

5. Band of the year:

Some naughty searched forMusic Is My Boyfriend ..lol. Wondering what’s in her head ..Radiohead?
Even a cursory look into Ask Top searches & Google zeitgeist would suggest Music & videos has become an integral part of our daily lives.
While Radiohead rewrote the rules of music industry by web only distribution & “Name your price” for their new album In Rainbows , whereas the surviving members of legendary rock group Led Zeppelin rocked music lovers with a surprise comeback.

However Google Trends seems to have nod its head in favor of Radiohead so are the innumerous blog citations [overstatement !!ok..39,577 Technorati results to be little specific ]& the chartbuster at Lastfm.Talys Say: Radihead for sharing 2.0.
Apurbas Say: Of course Radiohead. Wasn’t that anyway our takeaway from DRM free iTune growth.

6. Social Website of the year:

Check your vitals ..you never know when an Identity Crash awaits you as Facebook Surprise .
Our world seems have obsessed with Facebook & MySpace. Google trends suggest MySpace as the winner with Facebook catching up almost at meteorites pace [did you know Facebook overcomes MySpace in the UK and Canada?] so are the blog citations.

Vox populi declared Facebook as winner of social networking at Webbys .Its again Facebook [over MySpace] nominated for the company of the year in AOL Best and Worst 2007.

facebook-myspace-trends-2007.PNG

graph 9: Google search: Facebook vs. Myspace (by Google Trends).
facebook-myspace-blogs-2007.PNG

graph 10: blog citations: Facebook vs. Myspace (by BlogPulse).

Taly’s Say: MySpace- only for not blinking when Facebook came rising up so fast.
Apurba’s Say: Love it or hate it.. its Facebook .Going by stats

  • The youngest accounts for a disproportionate amount of the traffic on MySpace and Facebook–and they don’t favor either brand.
  • Dual Facebook /MySpace users spent 26 % more time on Facebook (93 minutes per month ) – than did the average Facebook-only users (74 minutes).

7. Country of the year :
The flutter of a butterfly’s wings in China could, in fact, actually effect weather patterns in New York City, thousands of miles away : The Butterfly Effect

Remembering that Japan, the leading country to blog (!) and the one to promise a replacement for the internet , be it Japan’s Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda’s recent visit to china or 2008 Beijing Olympics or its burgeoning internet population that will soon overtake US ,the Asian dragon seems fiery. The United states ,China , and Japan are the 3 top guns in today’s internet graph (see graph). Going by blog citations our discussions seemed real hot.

top-countries-internet.PNG

graph 11: Top countries in internet useage (by internetworldstats)

top-countries-trends-2007.PNG

graph 12: blog citations: United States vs. Japan vs. China (by BlogPulse)

Our say: No doubt Asian giants are roaring up take the United States bull by horn.

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2007 TrendsSpotting Trends Review

December 29th, 2007 by

trends-2007.jpg

For our 2007 Trend Review we choose few “best chosen” categories and suggested our best nominees. For those we examined “You” – writing on blogs and forums. We checked Your searches and votes and presented evidence for the trends. Our final conclusion is based on our personal insights. Our Trends 2007 tools were: search engines trends, buzz on blogs, forums, surveys, mainstream media and popular blogs. And of course – previous TrendsSpotting findings.

1. Product of the year:

The competition was lopsided numero – uno iPhone versus “No One”. Though, we were considering: Nintendo wii ,MS Xbox, playstation III, Guitar Hero. Our appetite for iPhone seems incessant Google zeitgeist suggests iPhone is the No 1 – fastest rising global and in US. Mainstream Media was voracious about apples much hyped gadget. To much of iPhones accolade Time declared it as “The invention of the year”.Blogpulse (see graph 1) suggests iPhone was indeed a news generator. However wii seems to be starring in search and in forum discussions (see graph 2) while just before Christmas wii demand skyrocketed & Nintendo’s inability to match that ,brought it much to our discussion.

iphone-wii-xbox.PNG

graph 1: blog citations: iPhone vs. wii vs. xbox (by BlogPulse)

iphone-wii-xbox-forums.PNG

graph 2: forum citations: iPhone vs. wii vs. xbox (by Omgili)

Can you believe when the initial survey indicated that only 3% were highly interested in purchasing iPhone for the price of $499 , Apple had to cut it down to $399, just 68 days after product launch?

Talys Say: iPhone will make it to history pages.
Apurbas Say: xbox.

2. Disappointment of the year:

We think the two close contestants were rumor (or news) multiplied “Google Phone” buzz versus virtual world bubble “Second Life”. While Google secret sauce Android added much to the Gphone buzz ,whereas kids & their alternative identity, “Second Life” stalled mostly due to operational issues.

For Google Phone- The seasonal peak in Google Phone searches (see graph 3) & blog citations (see graph 4) are true reflection of how quickly we lost out interest in it.

For Second Life: 2007 was the breaking point for Second Life (see graph 5 for traffic, graph 4 for blog citations).

trends-2007-sl-gphone.PNG
graph 3: Google search: second life vs. Google phone vs. android (by Google Trends) secondlife-googlephone-android.PNG
graph 4: blog citations: second life vs. google phone vs. android (by BlogPulse) secondlife-alexa.PNG
graph 5: 2007 traffic estimation for secondlife (by alexa)
Our say: Hard to say – While Google Phone brought publishers to lose faith in Google (so much discussion over nothing) Second Life holds major marketers on hold.

3. Issue of the year:

The grass looks much greener in 2007..at least Yahoo !s Top 10 environmental query suggests so. Interesting. .Global warming – is that a Global issue or was it Angela Merkel’s political agenda to G8 summit? Why only people of 3 countries are proactively demanding from their governments to take responsibility ? On the contrary “United States election” made a loud noise in almost all main stream media across the globe.

Our say: Google Trends seems much warmer on “Global warming” over “United states election” (see graph 6).

global-warming-us-elections-trend.PNG
graph 6: Google search: global warming vs. United States election (by Google Trends)

Taly’s say: Global warming – A trend with ideology which makes us better people.

Apurba’s say: Are we loosing faith in government & institutions? None of the presidential candidates [except Hillary Clinton & Obama] registered great buzz.CIA, FBI are alleged to edit Wikipedia .

4. Book of the year:
“He who lends a book is an idiot. He who returns the book is more of an idiot” –Arab Proverb.

Fun apart – 2007 we seemed enchanted by “potter mania”- on the release day itself Harry Potter was hot not less than iPhone

It would be a fallacy to compare Harry Potter’s 7th book [25-30 M sold & most talked in Shelfari ] with other notable Amazon Best sellers specially Elizabeth Gilbert’s travel memoir “Eat ,Pray ,Love” [ 4 M sold]. It created outstanding online buzz post the Oprah Winfrey Show featured author Gilbert on two episodes on Oct 2007.

See Harry Potter versus Amazon Best seller (graph 7 – blog citations, graph 8 – forum discussions)

harry-potter-trends-2007.PNG

graph 7: blog citations: Harry Potter vs. Eat Pray Love (by BlogPulse)

harry-potter-trends-forum-2007.PNG

graph 8: forum discussions: Harry Potter vs. Eat Pray Love (by Omgili)

Our say: no match!

5. Band of the year:

Some naughty searched forMusic Is My Boyfriend ..lol. Wondering what’s in her head ..Radiohead?
Even a cursory look into Ask Top searches & Google zeitgeist would suggest Music & videos has become an integral part of our daily lives.
While Radiohead rewrote the rules of music industry by web only distribution & “Name your price” for their new album In Rainbows , whereas the surviving members of legendary rock group Led Zeppelin rocked music lovers with a surprise comeback.

However Google Trends seems to have nod its head in favor of Radiohead so are the innumerous blog citations [overstatement !!ok..39,577 Technorati results to be little specific ]& the chartbuster at Lastfm.Talys Say: Radihead for sharing 2.0.
Apurbas Say: Of course Radiohead. Wasn’t that anyway our takeaway from DRM free iTune growth.

6. Social Website of the year:

Check your vitals ..you never know when an Identity Crash awaits you as Facebook Surprise .
Our world seems have obsessed with Facebook & MySpace. Google trends suggest MySpace as the winner with Facebook catching up almost at meteorites pace [did you know Facebook overcomes MySpace in the UK and Canada?] so are the blog citations.

Vox populi declared Facebook as winner of social networking at Webbys .Its again Facebook [over MySpace] nominated for the company of the year in AOL Best and Worst 2007.

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graph 9: Google search: Facebook vs. Myspace (by Google Trends).
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graph 10: blog citations: Facebook vs. Myspace (by BlogPulse).

Taly’s Say: MySpace- only for not blinking when Facebook came rising up so fast.
Apurba’s Say: Love it or hate it.. its Facebook .Going by stats

  • The youngest accounts for a disproportionate amount of the traffic on MySpace and Facebook–and they don’t favor either brand.
  • Dual Facebook /MySpace users spent 26 % more time on Facebook (93 minutes per month ) – than did the average Facebook-only users (74 minutes).

7. Country of the year :
The flutter of a butterfly’s wings in China could, in fact, actually effect weather patterns in New York City, thousands of miles away : The Butterfly Effect

Remembering that Japan, the leading country to blog (!) and the one to promise a replacement for the internet , be it Japan’s Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda’s recent visit to china or 2008 Beijing Olympics or its burgeoning internet population that will soon overtake US ,the Asian dragon seems fiery. The United states ,China , and Japan are the 3 top guns in today’s internet graph (see graph). Going by blog citations our discussions seemed real hot.

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graph 11: Top countries in internet useage (by internetworldstats)

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graph 12: blog citations: United States vs. Japan vs. China (by BlogPulse)

Our say: No doubt Asian giants are roaring up take the United States bull by horn.

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Google’s Android – where’s the buzz?

November 17th, 2007 by

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Google’s announcement over its Android raised lots of doubts and ambiguity over the web. Some speculate on its success, while others still stick to the belief that eventually Google will present the promised g-Phone. Either way, when I checked its buzz over the online media, Google’s search queries, and the blogsphere, it seems that Android shows relatively low effect.

1. iPhone, in the same time period, still receives much higher effect on blogs (see graph 1).
2. Google Hot Trends shows that only on the announcement date (November 5) – Android made it to the top 100 “hot” searches.
3. Online media buzz declines significantly as shown by my search on Trendio (see graph 2).

Understanding Google’s PR potential – is it a “keep it low” strategy or have we all lost faith and interest?

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graph 1: Android, gPhone vs. iPhone (IceRocket)

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graph 2: Android on online media (Trendio)

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hot trends: Harry Potter hotter than iPhone on release day? (revised)

July 21st, 2007 by

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Harry Potter’s 7th book made it nicely on google Hot Trends on its day of release . Being the last in the series, and having the mystery surrounding this worldwide hero – made it a real hot search (most common searches were: “does Harry Potter die”, “Harry Potter ending” – reaching number 15 out of 100 searches in the USA – see graph 1). The way I see it, from a trends and communication perspective – it did help Harry Potter to be leaked to the net (intentionally??? ).
I was curious enough to try compare Harry Potter to iPhone on its released day.
Turns out that one of the most powerful technology trends is not much ahead (search wise) culture symbols and cross age idols as Harry Potter. (iPhone reached number 10 30 on USA Hot Trends in the day of its release, see graph 2).
In analogy to Harry – Imagine this hot trend search: will iphone die?

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graph 1: google hot trends: harry potter on release day

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graph 2: google hot trends: iPhone on release day

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