A Foxconn Taiwanese factory worker become an Internet buzz after a picture of her smiling and flashing a peace sign to a co-worker testing an Apple iPhone stayed on the phone that was sold to a man in Britain. The iPhone customer,  identified as “markm49uk”,  reported his finding on MacRumors.com along with posting three pictures of the “girl” he found on his phone. This set off a global chain reaction of media interest & culminating in the quest by China’s “Human Flesh Search Engine” to discover her identity.

China’s Human Flesh Search Engine is a poor translation of the Chinese phrase ren’rou sou’suo ??????, an increasingly frequent phenomenon of online crowds gathering via China’s BBS, chat rooms, and IMs to collaborate on a common task.

Some speculated the girl’s age to be about 12 or 13, and whether a harmless snapshot may be a small glimpse into child labor abuses.  A Gizmodo reader rated “iPhone girl” a 5.5 out of 10 on the cute scale.  Some people voiced concern that the woman could now lose her job while one dubbed it as a “nice personal touch “. Local netizens created a website for her, iphonegirl.cn, and urged netizens not to human-flesh search and publish her personal data. Amid the all speculations “iPhone girl” recorded over 20 million searches on Google’s Chinese search site, google.cn & became a fastest growing term in Baidu, making her an Internet Celebrity overnight.

“iPhone Girl” buzz in Blogs

The Internet breathed a sigh of relief when representatives from Foxconn confirmed that “iPhone Girl” was a worker at its plant and declared the photos were a “beautiful mistake”. China’s Southern Metropolitan Daily dubbing the mystery worker “China’s prettiest factory girl”, later reported that the woman was not fired.

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Mobile Web Activities: iPhone, Smartphone and Total Market: January 2008

Six months after the iPhone’s launch, Apple is generating another peak for its leading brand. On July 11, gadget lovers around the world crammed into stores to buy the latest super-fast iPhone 3G.

What have iPhone have achieved is not only well competing with dominant mobile companies, but also leading the whole category of Mobile Web: According to M:Metrics
iPhone is already the most popular device for accessing news and information on the mobile Web, with 85% of iPhone users accessing news and information in the month of January.
M:Metrics found that 31% of iPhone owners watched mobile TV or video (versus 4.6% market average). Usage of social networking is also popular among iPhone users: 49.7% accessed a social networking site in January, 12 times the market average.

Among iPhone owners – YouTube, Google Maps and Facebook are much more popular:
30.4% of iPhone users accessed YouTube (versus 1% total mobile market), 36% used Google Maps (versus 2.6% total market) and 20% accessed Facebook (versus 1.5% of the total mobile market).

iPhone users and the music market:
74% of iPhone owners were listening to mobile music in January (compared to 6.7% of the total mobile audience). Not surprising is the fact that 84% of iPhone owners who use an MP3 player use an iPod.

iPhone users demographic profile:
The demographic composition of iPhone users are similar to the demographics of other smartphone owners: they are more likely to be male, aged 25-34, earn more that $100,000 and have a college degree.

Methodology:
M:metrics survey of U.S. mobile subscribers is based on three-month moving average for period ending 31st January 2008, n = 31,389.

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The new improved iPhone – available July 11th.

Apple’s news are flying high through digg.com front page (most popular in 24 hours) brought 1093 diggs, 764 comments in 2.5 hours only.
Readers comments are very much in favor of Apple’s new iPhone version:

Thanks apple for making me feel obsolete, again.

More affordable + GPS

Might be time for me to drop verizon….

next i want the iphone to work on the moon.

The GPS feature is pretty amazing.

This looks like a great piece of technology well worth the money.

Apple constantly amazes me.

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Harry Potter’s 7th book made it nicely on google Hot Trends on its day of release . Being the last in the series, and having the mystery surrounding this worldwide hero – made it a real hot search (most common searches were: “does Harry Potter die”, “Harry Potter ending” – reaching number 15 out of 100 searches in the USA – see graph 1). The way I see it, from a trends and communication perspective – it did help Harry Potter to be leaked to the net (intentionally??? ).
I was curious enough to try compare Harry Potter to iPhone on its released day.
Turns out that one of the most powerful technology trends is not much ahead (search wise) culture symbols and cross age idols as Harry Potter. (iPhone reached number 10 30 on USA Hot Trends in the day of its release, see graph 2).
In analogy to Harry – Imagine this hot trend search: will iphone die?

graph 1: google hot trends: harry potter on release day

graph 2: google hot trends: iPhone on release day

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iPhone is to be released in less than 2 days (Gigaom: thanks for the countdown). Many discuss the iPhone’s price issue. According to a recent online survey (graph 1) conducted on US internet users by Parks Associates, only 3% have a strong interest in purchasing the iPhone at its $499.99 price point and two-year contract (sample size: 2,000 US internet households).

Updates: Compete reports a survey conducted on 680 iPod potential shoppers (assumptions: those who search for iPod, might be potential iPhone consumers): 13% reported they are “very likely” to purchase an iPhone, 2% reported they are “extremely likely” to purchase one.

Kurt Scherf, vice president and principal analyst with Parks Associates claims that “the high price point may prevent the iPhone from achieving greater adoption over the short term. It may be an early-adopter product that appeals to technophiles but initially leaves other interested users on the outside looking in.”

I think differently. The iPhone is headed to the early adopters (3% or more). They will be the ones to shape the brand identity. From what we know – they have the right profile to set the trend. Others will follow to be perceived as those who can buy an iPhone. The iPhone brand is not about pricing as it is about perceptions and social needs. When it comes to perceptions and recognition, here is the voice of the blogsphere around “iPhone”, in comparison with the “ïPod” (see blogpulse graph 2). 

As I see it: status symbols have no price: $499 will be a good start for apple.

graph 1: US internet users survey

graph 2: iPhone versus iPod in blog posts

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Digital Life America reports an online survey conducted by Solutions Research Group (May 2007), on 1230 American consumers. The following profile describes those who report to be ‘definitely’ interested in buying iphone for 499$.

It seems that the average early adopters are educated men on their thirties, living in NY or California, not necessarily ipod users, with household income of 75,600$. 

via: designsojourn

for more iphone surveys and predictions see: Morgan Stanley, ChangeWave survey, M:Metrics, iphonic 

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A recent comScore report (September 2010) found that 58.7 million people in the U.S. owned smartphones (up 15% from the preceding three month period). The large majority of mobile subscribers (67%) used text messaging on their mobile device. Subscribers who used downloaded applications comprised 33.1 percent of the mobile audience (2.5% increase). Accessing of social networking sites or blogs increased 1.8% representing 23.2 percent of mobile subscribers.

Text messaging behavior is currently driven by young mobile users. Once they will own smartphones – TrendsSpotting predicts a  fundamental change in the use of mobile phones: the text messaging phenomena will be replaced by mobile web activities.

We have collected evidences to support our argument:

1. Teens are yet to own smartphone devices:

According to eMarketer only 12% of all consumers under 24 own an iPhone and less than a third own any type of smartphone. Piper Jaffray’s 20th bi-annual teen survey also shows that less than 15% of high school students already own an iPhone with a third planning to buy one within the next 6 months.

2. Teens current text messaging behavior:

Nielsen’s Q2 2010 teen survey (ages 13-17) demonstrates that while text messaging behavior is still growing among all age groups, text messaging among teens, especially teen females is reaching new levels (female teens send and receive an average of 4,050 texts per month versus  an average of 2,539 texts per males).

3. Teens connected to smartphones already embrace mobile web capabilities:

A. According to Nielsen, teens mobile usage has increased substantially versus Q2 last year, from 14 MB to 62 MB. This increase is the largest jump among all age groups. Much of this boost is attributed to males consuming 75 MB of data, versus 17 MB in Q2 last year. Teen females use about 53 MB of data, compared to 11 MB a year ago. Teens are now downloading a wider range of applications: the use of apps (such as Facebook and Youtube) saw a 12 percent increase versus last year, from 26 to 38 percent.

B. Pew Internet’s April survey shows a consistent trend in the use of mobile phones web related activities among teens-

• 31% exchange instant messages on their phones.
• 27% go online for general purposes on their phones.
• 23% of teens access social network sites on their phones
• 21% use email on their phones
• 11% purchase things via their phones.

With more teens owning smart phone devices and with decreasing mobile data cost we expect the text messaging trend to be replaced by similar communication behaviors evolving around the mobile web, specifically  instant messages, social networking and MMS (Multimedia Message Services) which we see as the upcoming communication feature, incorporating  images and videos into the messages.

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Google (and Yahoo) brought opportunities to the online retail. Location Based Services will bring promising opportunities to offline shopping.

Much has been said about recommendation sites and smart engines as Pandora, Netflix, Amazon and Google.
Looking back at the last ten years – recommendation engines started with item comparison. Personalized engines were then developed and offered suggestions (predictions) based on users past behavior, claimed preferences, or computer pre-defined identification systems.

When social parameters were added – users were exposed to other decisions made by anonymous shoppers (or popular search results).

Today, when social interactions are mainstream, and technology (smartphones adoption continue to rise ) enables location based services, we get new dimensions added to the equation.

According to the Social Comparison Theory people are especially prone to compare themselves to people they view as similar to them. Research has also shown a strong link between social comparison and peer communication about consumption.
Given a location system added to the social knowledge – users are exposed to practical and immediate choices.
Having a direct knowledge on friends buying decisions in times relevant to decision making will certainly influence decision making process. Acknowledging that, Facebook has established Places.

What will social networks and location based recommendations add to this eco-system of recommendation sites?

Following the entrance of location based networks as Foursquare and Gowalla, we have prepared a list of predictions and highlights for future research:

Prediction 1.
Multiple based recommendations might bring to consumer confusion:
Issues to be tested:
1. Will people be able to differentiate between location based recommendation (just because you are here) to a different recommendation type (their pass behavior for instance)?
2. Will people want to learn how to differentiate between parameters which influence their decision?
3. Assuming this given choice – will people really put efforts to chose their preferred recommendation parameter in real time?

Prediction 2:
Location will improve personal voting behavior if it will be connected to real benefits.
Issues to be tested:
What benefits will influence personal voting behavior? (checkout discounts, product giveaways etc) and what will be the preferred form of benefits (first to come, coupons, accumulate loyalty ..)

Prediction 3:
Social presence (quantity: amount of friends / people) will count as quality.
To be tested:
1. Assuming many of ones friends visited a place or purchased a product – would this replace reading their reviews?
2. Are all friends come equal? Will people differentiate between friends (work friends. network friends) as the reliable source of influence?

Prediction 4:
Offline offerings will be more dominant than online offerings with LBS entering the decision making process:
Entertainment (restaurants and bars, events) and offerings made by physical stores will lead the local revolution.
Issues to be tested:
What offline industry sectors will better fit the local recommendation behavior (entertainment? fashion? electronics?)

Prediction 5:
With LBS, local cultures will define consumer behavior.
Consumer learning will shift from demographics (traditional behavior) and digital networking (global influence) to local communities.

To learn more on experimental marketing activities of brands using socio-location  incentives- follow the reviews made by Click, Read Write Web and ABI Research.

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I was recently interviewed by Laura Rich, a digital media reporter, for an Advertising Age paper: Shiny New Things: What Digital Adopters Want, How to Reach Them and Why Every Marketer Should Pay Attention.

I recommend that you read the article as it presents many new angles and insights provided by professional researchers, marketers and early adopters (as Bill Tancer from Hitwise, Steve Rubel from Edelman, Robert Scoble, and many more).

I wish to further develop some of the points I suggested in the article:

Digital Adopters: what has changed?

Following the adoption of technologies in many consumer domains, a shift can be observed in the last few years in the segmentation and characteristics of early adopters. I tend to attribute this change to the wide and global adoption of the internet.
Technology is no longer the domain of a small minority of young male experimenters (previously known as “geeks”). It is now one of the main communication and business channels available. Consumers are no longer passive to new technology, but are fast learning – active producers.

Here are some evidences to the shift in the concept of early adopters:

• Technology is global: Asian and South American countries (considered as developing countries) are seen to adopt changes much faster than developed countries (follow their activity on social networks for instance)

• Gender differences are weaker than ever: Women are embracing new technologies.

• Adoption rates have shortened: from decades to years, from years to months (Facebook, iPhone).

• Social behavior and technology advancementare well combined: The first smartphone users are first to adopt social networks (Facebook, Twitter), to experiment with apps, to view TV via internet / mobile. (see PEW survey: 39% of internet users with 4+  internet-connected devices use Twitter) and next to use location based solutions.

The power of early adopters:

In the last five years, early adopters have received a stage to influence others. Social Media gave them the screen power.
Early social media users have grown to be the main influencers, and their influence is far beyond technology. They have become the new celebrities. As part of their positioning, they are expected to act as early adopters, much the same as celebrities are needed to keep updated with fashion.

What should marketers consider when marketing to early adopters?

Early adopters are physically easier to reach but now much harder to “buy”. Most of the brands (and Apple is one big exception) have lost their attractiveness. Brands that can provide early adopters a good reason why – will have a chance to influence. It’s all about proven value.

If early users will find your product handy – they will be willing to spread it. Otherwise – they will not hesitate to share their real thoughts.
I suggest you will follow one of the first Coca Cola initiatives in the social media domain. They choose Brazil as their beta site and sent bloggers a free gift. We named it “Rent a blog strategy” which obviously failed…

Marketers definitely need to learn and understand the new social norms shared by early adopters.

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“2010 Mobile Influencers” is the sixth and last report from the series “2010 Influencers Series: Trend Predictions in 140 Characters“.

Findings: Major trends in 2010 Mobile:

Across many of these predictions, we have identified the following trends suggested to influence Mobile in 2010:

# Payment      # Commerce      #Metrics

# Advertising:  networks,  SMS, display, search, premium

# Smartphones: Apple, Apps, iPhone, Google, Android

# GPS      # Location      # Augmented Reality

# Gaming      # Music      # Video

I wish to thank all experts who participated in the 2010 Influencer Series, and submitted their insightful prediction tweets.

Many thanks to the TrendsSpotting team, and most to Apurba Sen, Nizan Malkit, Aviv Sher, and Yotam Shochat who made it all possible in such a short time.

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